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Saturday, November 10, 2007

India the Next Super Power

Indian average earning crossed $1100/month…the next Super Power?

Indian average earning crossed $1100/month…the next Super Power. Expected by 2015 it would cross $2500. The change is evident. Everything is changing like Consumerism, Brand Awareness to the general life Style. The life of Multinational Companies and their work culture impacted a lot and acted as the change agent to this continuous change in Indian economy. Measured in comparable units of purchasing power, the U.S. economy, at $10.7 trillion, is currently almost twice the size of China's ($6.3 trillion) and three times the size of India's ($3.6 trillion). The much higher U.S. per capita income, almost eight times that of China and roughly 11 times that of India, is partially offset by the much larger populations of the two Asian countries. But with per capita incomes in China and India likely to grow more rapidly than in the U.S., thus narrowing the large gaps in living standards, both Asian economies will eventually surpass the U.S. Now both economies are soaring. China's aggregate GNP has grown by about 10% a year since the late 1970s and India's has grown by about 6% a year since 1991, compared with annual U.S. economic growth of about 3.5%. China's and India's soaring growth rates will decline as the income gap with the U.S. narrows. The closer both countries come to the technological levels of the U.S. and other rich countries, the fewer opportunities there will be to import technological know-how. The slowdown is likely to be gradual, however, so both countries, and others like them, will have economic growth greater than that of the U.S. for decades to come. Econometric evidence suggests that when the income gap between China and the U.S. narrows by half, China's growth advantage will decline by about 1.4 percentage points per year. China's per capita income is currently about 13% of that of the U.S., and per capita GNP in China is growing about 4.6 percentage points per year faster than in the U.S. So when China's per capita income reaches 26% of the U.S. level, the annual growth advantage should fall to about 3.2 percentage points. Still later, when China's per capita income level reaches about half the U.S. level, China's growth advantage will be about 1.8 percentage points. Extrapolating based on this rule of thumb, China would reach about half the U.S. per capita income level by the year 2050, while its projected population of some 1.4 billion will be about 3.4 times the U.S. population of about 400 million. At that point China's GNP would be about 75% larger than that of the U.S. By a similar calculation, assuming that India's annual per capita income growth now exceeds the U.S. rate by about four percentage points, India's per capita income would reach a little more than a quarter of the U.S. level by 2050, with a population nearly four times as large, leading to an overall economy about the same size as that of the U.S. This rise of life style and costs of living already sky rocketing and many cost sensitive processes are not selecting India to be the most preferred destination lately, still many companies coming and Indian BPO Industries are now finding the shift of more knowledge based jobs known as KPO than BPO, which needs more specialized manpower. Few companies in Pune started supporting H&R Block, so payroll pocessing, paralegal processings, accountings are now coming to India looking for sectoral and specialized manpower in that particular domain. To friend and foe alike, the U.S. appears to be the unchallenged power in the world. The French call the U.S. a hyperpower. Neoconservatives believe it is a new Rome. But both greatly exaggerate U.S. preeminence--and its staying power. American power rests mainly on advanced technology, which is increasingly available to the whole world. While the economies of China and India are considerably smaller than that of the U.S., China is likely to overtake and India to equal the U.S. economy in size by mid-century. And as the world's economic center of gravity shifts to Asia, U.S. preeminence would inevitably diminish. Data compiled from CNN Fortune

176 comments:

RYAN Baidya said...

Hello Dibyendu,

I am very happy and excited to see total wealth of India is growing. I am equally saddened to see asymmetric distribution of basic needs of the people. A large population of the citizen are falling behind - last election was one of the indication of it (perhaps)

Furthermore, morale and social norm have changing in a direction that is destabilizing THE key "glue" that hold the entire country as a whole and each individual family as an unit of the society since last invasion of foreign prower (about 500+ yrs)

India's constitutional architecture provides immense freedom and rights to its citizens, however, infrastructure in not adequately placed to make sure the rights and freedom are honored from top-to-bottom - ICICI, HSBC and many other private financial institution's "DADAN" - practice is sad outcome of the process.

I am very please to see all progresses made at every corner of India and all my friends and family enjoying it wonderfully. BUT, what I see and read is land and properties are taken way with good intention to develop the economy - while greed and ethics clashes rigorously.

India has plenty of SUN (Solar) and large coastal area -- Why isn't the country developing its Solar and wind energy as future security for the energy need and cleanness of the environment. Would it really necessary to go for other dangerous path for energy that comes with many strings -- there is "no free lunch" in this universe - sometime one can see at the face -- sometime one cannot. However Solar and wind power are very open and what you see what you get......... Initial cost -- efficiency and many other talks of the Nay sayers.... Well if India is in the direction of supper power -- why doesn't take the supper lead to be "GREEN COUNTRY".

We all remmember the begging and dragging for a Super-computer in mid 80s. Thanks to Sam (yes Sam Pitroda) - India build its own - and on that rush - India build its IT-pride and craze - thus the path to "recognizable economy" -- Bharat Abar Jagat Majhare Shresta Asan Lobe" -- something like that.....

I hope India finds another Sam Pitroda - to lead with pride and tenacity to build its "GREEN POWER" System -- India has plenty of SUN -- with it I would be happy celebrate "GREEN INDIA" rather than Super-Power -- Power is and has been always associated greed and destruction.

Thank you,
RYAN Baidya

Jay Michael Jaboneta said...

I truly believe that the next superpower economies will be China and India. These two emerging economies will replace the US and Japan as the two biggest economies in the next 25 years if not earlier. The reasons for these are a plenty but two of the most important are people and technology.

As the people of Asia particularly India, China, and ASEAN begin to leverage their knowledge, their hidden talent and their resources towards creating greater efficiencies and synergies across their industries, each country will also begin to create powerful companies and organizations that will drive the growth of the global economy.

China has the upper-hand today having the largest population on the planet and with a very stable government organization. But India is set to replace China as the country with the largest population in the next 10 years so India can become the dark horse in this race.

The US will inevitably still have its superpower status as it has the best military and intelligence technology there is in the world and it has the competitive advantage in terms of a head start.

But as more and more people from Asia realize their true potential as an individual and as a people, they will execute the Asian dream which will usher in the Asian century we have all been waiting for many years.

The growth in the global economy will be fueled by Asia's emerging global workforce which will become the global standard and will be truly world-class. We see that now in business-process outsourcing services, in banking and finance, in consumer goods, pharmaceuticals and in almost every other industry there is including car manufacturing. Truly India can become one of the leading economic superpower in the years to come.

My advice is for Indian companies and entrepreneurs to start adapting a global mindset and that they are truly champions in their own right. India has to shed its colonial past and embrace its new-found identity as the technology capital of the world. It is truly set to become the hotbed for Asian Innovation. What will drive that is a change of mindset, of attitude, from a competitive one to a creative one. Asia can create better and bigger companies and organizations, all that's needed is the first step. India must take that first step. And our journey would have started.

Good luck and God speed!

Nityananda Mukherjee said...

Yes Dibyendu,
Why Not?
More so because we are growing at 8-9% and that to over a small base(less than a trillion dollar economy)
lots of potential(sector and niche areas) yet to be untapped
Biggest threat in not whether we can decouple from US slowdown threat or for that matter the sub prime crisis
The threat is from within,from the hungry masses and above all the illiterate Politicians,the leftists,the egoist IAS Lobby(and many sharks!!)
just see how well we are divided
the North(BIMARU states) vs tech/industry savvy West/southern States
Truely, a long way to go(not the way Goldman Sachs predicted)
certainly we will be Super power-Monetary Currency and economic strength wise
Next Big thing will be-Rupee convertibility on capital Account
cheers
Long live the Asia

Anwar Majeed said...

Bring up the Quality of the Export product & win the markets outside india, Peoples in other countries are ready to give money.... As they are giving us in Service sector..But for being a SUper Power we have to make the peoples depend on us through our Product quality.. Work on improving the Indian industries is required badly.

Robert De Loght said...

Let it be for the high quality of its people, its rich culture,...

Les DeGroff said...

From a some what decadent US view, probably not. For all the vast economic achievements, India appears to be somewhat fragile on national security issues, not ready to invest in space technology.
Super Power is not just GDP, and certainly is not just corporate.

Ramesh Manghirmalani said...

India will be Regional Power not super Power for many reason such as:

1. Communist Party is strong in Bengal and Kerala and they will not allow India to think out of the Box.They are major Liability to India's growth.
2.Corruption is rapid in India.
3. Old Politicians like L K Advani and J. Basu have to go, we have to bring your generation of your politician have to grow in India.
4. Without Bribery nothing gets done, people from Police, Customs.
5. Indians are not Philanthropist like Westerns.
6. Lack of Trust among people,Exploitation among business men
7. Banks give major loans to people they know well, and have guys beaten up with small Loans like ICICI
8. Laws have to be changed in India to attract and encourage International. Investments
9.Rupee has to be fully convertible.

Let me not negative India is going to grow at faster spend but every one will not be benefactor of growth only small numbers or percentage of people.India has been on a trajectory of unprecedented growth


Five consecutive years with GDP growth in excess of 8%

9.4% GDP growth in financial year 2006-07

Domestic market booming with opportunities

17 consecutive quarters of corporate profit growth of over 20%

300% year-on-year growth in the number of patent applications

The world's fastest-growing free market democracy is rapidly establishing its footprint across the globe. Leveraging the competitive advantages accruing from - easy access to a vast pool of skilled knowledge workers; scale neutral, high quality manufacturing processes and global services delivery models; strength in home markets and global investors' willingness to finance their plans, Indian–companies are scouting across borders seeking opportunities and challenges.
Clarification added 2 hours ago:

How many people pay Taxes in India? How many cheat of Taxes? these are third world problems, India will gorw it will take time, it will be like Thai Economy, Apart from Tata every industrial House in India cheats on Taxes for example Ambani's they have not payed income tax, Octroi and Sales Tax for years, and people who give them loans have no guts to take it back, and instead of helping poor India he bought plane for his wife from Taxes he is suppose to pay. I will show you Vendors who are not paid. Welcome to Humara Desh.

Harshwardhan said...

Most certainly not. We are a bunch of self-congratulating dreamers, and we are completely incapable of fixing so many basic and simple malaises which hobble us. India's best kept secret is the reason why our roads are so bad: The asphalt is routinely and widely adulterated with used engine oils, available in plenty in every corner of the country. The hot mix looks very wet and proper. After laying, it is covered with stone dust to fix its permanent tackiness due to mixing with lube oil. This is just one example from millions such shenanigans. And our most-unprofessional-in-the-world media ignores this and talks of India being the next superpower! Shame on us. Shame on all of us. We can't see that we are actually spitting on our own face. Lets stop this first. Change-management is just a hollow managementspeak!

Get real, Dibyendu!

Harshwardhan Gupta
harsh@neubauplan.com

Anil Venkatesan said...

Hello Dibyendu,

Good detailed stats of China and India, and also lot of NRI money is coming back to india which is a good sign, but there are lot of issues which our government is not looking at which can decelerate our growth, agriculture nothing is happening in this sector which has a huge potential to grow.

The wealth distribution is even, still lot of people in India don't get one time meal.

We have abundance of Solar energy available but we are not using it, Government should invest in the technologies which will help in using the sun's energy, and should help in controlling the global warming.

We have the best talent in the world, but still lots of kids are not able to go to school.

For making India next super power, the government should work from the root level, introduce schemes for agriculture, schools.

Rochak Chauhan said...

In my opinion, India and China have joined the race to be the next superpowers. Thats it !
India has to go a long way to realize that dream. Few factors we have to keep our eyes on are:

# Illiteracy
# Poverty
# Corruption
# Communism
# Health Care
# Agriculture

Riding on the current economic boom, we should also keep it in the back of out mind that what happened to Japan. The focus should be on becoming self dependent.

I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping India will be able to transform from a contender to a superpower within this decade ! AMEN !

Aneal Mahajn said...

Frankly the construct of "Super Power" is rather moot. The new world does not have an order of leadership but exists in the plasma of collaboration. This mechanism is visible and functionally implemented at many corporations. Gone are the days of charismatic leaders who single handedly crafted and led a grand corporation. These days one either sees Cheerleaders and or Visionary Facilitators in leadership positions.

India is a democracy (one of the largest) the system is rather open with a myriad number of parties (not just one, two or three!). The system is not the most efficient but then a democracy is destined to be inefficient to a degree to cultivate the participative buy in from a majority of the participants.

As we saw, weapons of mass destruction take many forms and so a nuclear bomb or two or a dozen is not a big deal. Gone are the days of destroying civilian targets to end wars, the collaborative world will not allow such terroristic actions.

What we really need is the emergence of a global agency which can grab issues by the proverbial balls and resolve them rather than dainty stepping and demagoguery. Perhaps the world is ready to put some muscles and a backbone on the UN!!

Just imagine the increase in productivity and efficiency the world would experience if we could eliminate "defense" spending across the world. Not to mention the ecological positives, reduction in green house gases, pollution, etc and Oh lets not forget the savings in HUMAN LIVES.

The idea of economic super power is also tenuous as given that we are in a global environment, wielding that club will surely attract retaliation from the other participants, therefore here as well, collaboration is the winning attitude.


The opinions above are mine and subject to change!

Achal Kumar said...

Any doubts ? yes we will...

Hans Dholakia said...

India has great potential ; its greatest strengths are its being world's most ancient civilization, incredible spiritual heritage in the form of Vedanta / Yoga, its being the world's largest democracy etc. Population without education and work was its greatest liability ; population with education and work will be its greatest strength, like China.

But we must learn a few things from others : Hygiene and civic sense, integrity, sense of belonging, right attitudes, respect for laws incl. but not limited to traffic rules, humility etc. The list may be thwartingly large but it is do-able.

An Indian I recently travelled with, lives in China. The things he told me about China were pleasantly surprising. People work there with such discipline, they also don't litter there like we do here. On his first day in Shanghai, the girl from his client-organization took him around. Our friend ate something and in his customary fashion, threw the pouch around. A short while later, he noticed her putting the same kind of pouch into a dustbin but he knew she had not consumed it. On inquiry, she politely said she had picked up that same pouch which he had thrown quietly and had been waiting for the next bin. He felt so ashamed he could hardly vocalize an apology, but she played it down.

Growth is about more than just GDP. What applies to an individual, applies to a country as a whole too : Money alone does not make you good and happy. True, poverty is no good, either, and we must work towards eliminating it, but let it not be at the cost of values, our core ancient identity.

India is not just a gepographical entity. Its name says it all. 'Bha' in Sanskrit means light, 'rat' means
engaged. The land where people are engaged in seeking enlightenment, is Bharat.

Good luck, India. TOGETHER WE CAN DO IT !

Eileen Bonfiglio said...

Hi Dibyendu,

This is a wonderful result! Part of the agenda to bring about an end to our social ills is to raise the independence of people all over the world. To provide them the opportunity to rise above and improve without the help of government or socialism. This is a success story! We have so many more countries that can benefit by this example, perhaps it is time to focus more on them now and help them to become independent as well.

Eileen

Lucas Wyrsch said...

Dear Dibyendu,

Thank you for your interesting question!

China certainly will be the nest super power!
India comes later and Russia as well.
If we take the CIA facebook's figure for the US GDP, we get two different approaches, one at PPP or purchasing power parity and the other at OER or official exchange rate.

Now what do us the figures show in PPP?

US has a PPP GDP of US$13.06 tr
China has a PPP GDP of $10.21 tr (21.8% behind the US)
India has a PPP GDP of $6.164 tr (52.8% behind US and 39.6% behind China)
Russia has a PPP GDP of $1.746 tr (86.6% behind US, 82.9% behind China and 71.67% behind India!

But coming to a regional RIC (or RICh) powerhouse, where Russia, India and China are included, the total PPP GDP already is US$16.12 trillion or 23.43% above the US whose PPP GDP only is US$13.06 trillion or 19.0% less than that of the RICh countries.

But once again, China will be the next super power in quite a few year in terms of PPP and some years later in terms of OER.

When will China reasonably have a higher PPP GDP than the US?

China has an annual GDP growth rate of 11.1%, India of 9.4%, Russia of 6.7% and the US of 2.9%

Because China's annual GDP growth rate has always been superior to that of India during the last 30 years, there is almost no reasonable opportunity that India can become the next super power! It's just simple mathematics.

But when will China's PPP GDP have exceeded that of the US?

Probably as soon as 2011 or in less than four years!

How?

Make your rough estimations:

US: (1.029^4)*$13.06 trillions = $14.64 trillions
China: (1.111^4)*$10.21 trillions = $15.56 trillions

On the other hand, India's GDP doesn't grow at the same speed as China's, so there is no way that India could be the next super power, but as a RICh country, in terms of PPP, India with Russia and China already is THE SUPER POWER!

Hope it helps

Lucas
Swiss Business Club
http://xrl.us/SwissBusinessClub
Links:

* https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
* https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html
* https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.htm

Srinath Birur said...

Hi Dibyendu,

Yes, India will be future looking nation by rest of the world. I foresee India will beat china in all terms and be in number 1slot.

I think Govt should give more priorities towards infrastructure developments, education sector, agriculture and other untouched areas. As my friend Ryan has told, India govt should start giving attention to solar energies from now onwards, otherwise the day may come where in we may depend on someone else for this also.

The returning of NRI's is good sign, but Govt should provide them better infra as they are the people who can bring pump the funds in. Govt encouragement to startup companies should be at brighter side.

Why don't our politicians and other govt concerns do not act like professionals. Most of the Politicians today spend their money towards their self development, rather they don't have trueness to spend on developmental sectors. I think overall income(exact figure I do not have) of politicians if you calculate and take india can become better infrastructure provider and attract business opportunities.

Finally, we have been educated very well and we should join together to outbeat China and Rest of the world to be No.1.

Do you think BCCI is earning more??
(BCCI=Board of Cricket Control India.....No BILLIONAIRE CLUB CENTRE of INDIA)

Srinath

Ravi JK said...

Hello Dibyendu,

Thanks for the nice post & the discussion it's attracting.

Don't care whether India becomes super power or not, but India is already(one of ?)the highest dense populated nation, and I have n't seen anyone talking about controlling population.If India becomes superpower, it's like hitech gadgets filled small house for a very big family.

the people in positions won't try to solve problems, rather they feign ignorance, they only talk about 'the poor guy on the road'.
The poor guy on the road will be there only, so that is always there to keep them occupied.

The worst is communists, the communist china is growing fast, but the real communists are but in India, they won't let any good thing happen. Any party, not in the treasury benches' can't digest anything good happening , just because they are not in the ruling party. No other reason. psst..

Despite all this, i believe there's a solution - a solution comes out of crisises, we have plenty right now.

Dr. Jujhar Singh said...

Fast positive change in the economy,work culture,life style etc. is evident in view of globalization and economic reforms,however, India is mainly emerging as a service industry; basic and original research contrbution is insignificant and also the education and research standards at schools, colleges and universities are very poor. Will india be always dependent on developed countries for higher education and on NRI's for the progress!!!
I wish India should emerge as a self sufficient Super Power in years to come.

Good luck India.

Jujhar

Venkatesan Iyengar said...

"Patriotism is your conviction that this country is superior to all other countries because you were born in it." - George Bernard Shaw

Sorry to differ... all that you have stated looks great at the face of it... not so much on ground.

this is the case with both India and China... we just "ape - ing" the west.
We are following the same path that all the developed countries have done and we are doing it faster.... in about 30 -40 yrs from now... my grandson would be reading an article talking about .. (who knows).. Sudan and Cuba being the next super powers..

Personally I am least bothers about our GDP, Growth rate, GNP, Inflation and PPP, PCI etc..

Its so evident that this is thoughtless growth .. we are riding on the "cost cutting" wave.

Israel .. virtually a desert has the most efficient farm sector. If indian govt coudl invest 25 - 35 B $ in better farming, water mgmt and multicroping we would have a Farm GDP of about $ 800 B. we have wheat & rotting and we import cereal and honey and fruits...

I have been in the IT industry and have many friends there.. its one of the most inefficient systems .. not because of any mangement blunder but because even an half-moron could snore in him A/c cubicle and earn 10x - 20x what a farmer or an blue-collars worker earns....
who's at fault >> education systems.. its better to recruit illiterate than hire a educated fool.

Yes we are growing... but for sure we now have a bigger task at hand and time is running out fast real fast..

we need to reform the entire Socio-Economic system in India ( . its same situation... just that they have totally differ issues to sort out.. but trust the Chinese will !!)

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